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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity provided through current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.