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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."